Sunday 11 October, 16:30
Rio Ave vs Nacional: prediction and pick
Result: 3:2
The model’s pick
X2 (Nacional lub remis)68%(usually 56%)+12miss
Chances according to the model
- Rio Ave32%
- Draw31%
- Nacional37%
Expected goals
1.2 – 1.3
Other matches that day with a model forecast
Where the numbers come from
A statistical model (Dixon–Coles) built from the teams’ results — not opinions. “Usually” is how often the event happens in an average match; we publish a pick only from 60% and at least 12 points above “usually”.
Estimates, not sure things. We do not take bets. 18+.