Today’s football picks — Monday 5 October

A statistical model scans today’s matches and shows the ones where it sees an edge. One pick a day is open to everyone — free.

Pick of the day · free

Romania – Sweden

20:45 · UEFA Nations League, World

Sweden powyżej 0.5 gola91%(usually 70%)+21

Before kick-off

Why

Model chances: home 25% · draw 21% · away 53%.
Expected goals: 1.7 – 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals: 61%.
In an average match this happens 70% of the time — here the model sees 21 points more.

Full match analysis

The model sees 5 picks today

The pick and the edge are shown on Pro and VIP — and for 7 days after you create an account.

Yesterday’s pick of the day

Netherlands – Serbia

20:45 · UEFA Nations League, World

Netherlands (gospodarze)76%(usually 44%)+32

Hit · 2:1

Pick of the day so far: 7 of 7 hit.

How to read a pick

“68% (usually 44%)” — 68 is the model’s chance, 44 is how often it happens anyway. We only publish a pick from 60% and at least 12 points above “usually”.

Create a free account — 7 days with all picks visible and the morning email.

Estimates, not sure things. We do not take bets. 18+.