Where our numbers come from
We don’t guess. We calculate, from the results of thousands of matches. Here is how — in two minutes, without a single formula.
In short
The numbers come from a calculation, not from an AI’s opinion.
A computer works through past results and works out the chances. The AI is handed those finished numbers and only puts them into words — it is not allowed to change them.
A pick has to tell you more than you already knew.
Plenty of things in football happen very often all by themselves. Repeating those is not a tip, so we subtract whatever was obvious anyway.
We show the ones that missed, too.
Every pick is saved, checked against the official result after the match, and published — hits and misses alike.
Three steps behind every analysis
We work out how strong each team is
From this season’s results and last season’s. A match from last week counts for more than one from last year. Who they played matters too: three goals against the bottom club count for less than one against the leader.
We work out how this match could end
From both teams’ strength we get how many goals each is likely to score. From that the computer works out the chance of every possible scoreline, then adds them up into answers like “the home side won’t lose”.
The AI puts it into words
It gets the finished numbers and explains what stands behind them and what could go the other way. It does not invent the figures and does not correct them.
When we call something a pick
A sentence can be perfectly true and completely useless. That is the whole difference between a pick and stating the obvious.
The example that explains everything
- “The home side won’t lose” comes true in 69 matches out of 100. In any league, without calculating anything.
- So if we put 74% next to some match, that would be true — and you would get nothing out of it.
- That is why we always subtract what happens anyway. What’s left is one number: how far THIS match stands out from an ordinary one.
- We only publish a pick when it stands out by at least 12 points. That number is printed under every pick.
Sometimes nothing stands out that much. We still show the strongest read we have, labelled a fallback pick, together with exactly how many points it fell short. It counts towards our accuracy just like any other — we don’t hide the weaker ones from the statistics.
What we deliberately don’t do
We don’t guess how many goals will be scored
We checked it on thousands of matches: our calls on “over 2.5 goals” or “both teams to score” came out worse than simply going with the average. If that is the case, saying nothing is better — so we say nothing.
We don’t calculate in cup competitions
A cup throws several hundred teams from different divisions into one draw, and most of them play a single match. There is nothing to work their strength out from. We tried anyway — it came out worse than not trying.
We don’t show odds
This is a service about matches, not about betting. You won’t find a bookmaker’s price here, or any encouragement to gamble.
We check ourselves
Before we showed any of this, we tested the model on 8,069 matches it had never seen: we taught it on older results and made it call what came afterwards. Exactly the way it runs today.
- Every pick is saved the moment it is made, with the numbers behind it — so it cannot be quietly edited later.
- Once a day we check finished matches against the official result.
- Hits, misses and picks we couldn’t settle — all of it is public.