Sunday 11 October, 21:30
Arouca vs Estrela: prediction and pick
Result: 1:0
The model’s pick
The model had no pick in this match.
Chances according to the model
- Arouca52%
- Draw23%
- Estrela25%
Expected goals
2.1 – 1.5
Other matches that day with a model forecast
Where the numbers come from
A statistical model (Dixon–Coles) built from the teams’ results — not opinions. “Usually” is how often the event happens in an average match; we publish a pick only from 60% and at least 12 points above “usually”.
Estimates, not sure things. We do not take bets. 18+.