Primeira Liga, Portugal · Monday 2 November, 21:15
Benfica vs Alverca: prediction and pick
Result: 1:0
The model’s pick
Benfica (gospodarze)78%(usually 44%)+34hit
Chances according to the model
- Benfica78%
- Draw15%
- Alverca7%
Expected goals
2.8 – 0.8
Other matches that day with a model forecast
Where the numbers come from
A statistical model (Dixon–Coles) built from the teams’ results — not opinions. “Usually” is how often the event happens in an average match; we publish a pick only from 60% and at least 12 points above “usually”.
Estimates, not sure things. We do not take bets. 18+.