Tuesday 13 October, 20:45
Cardiff vs Watford: prediction and pick
The model’s pick
The model sees no pick above the norm here — the chances are close to what usually happens. No pick is information too.
Chances according to the model
- Cardiff44%
- Draw29%
- Watford26%
Expected goals
1.5 – 1.1
Other matches that day with a model forecast
Where the numbers come from
A statistical model (Dixon–Coles) built from the teams’ results — not opinions. “Usually” is how often the event happens in an average match; we publish a pick only from 60% and at least 12 points above “usually”.
Estimates, not sure things. We do not take bets. 18+.