Premier League · Saturday 10 October, 13:30

Arsenal vs Leeds: prediction and pick

Result: 2:1

The model’s pick

1X (Arsenal lub remis)86%(usually 69%)+17hit

Chances according to the model

Arsenal57%
Draw29%
Leeds14%

Expected goals

1.5 – 0.7

Other matches that day with a model forecast

Where the numbers come from

A statistical model (Dixon–Coles) built from the teams’ results — not opinions. “Usually” is how often the event happens in an average match; we publish a pick only from 60% and at least 12 points above “usually”.

Estimates, not sure things. We do not take bets. 18+.