Primeira Liga, Portugal · Sunday 1 November, 16:30
Arouca vs Nacional: prediction and pick
Result: 1:0
The model’s pick
1X (Arouca lub remis)81%(usually 69%)+12hit
Chances according to the model
- Arouca54%
- Draw27%
- Nacional19%
Expected goals
1.7 – 1.0
Other matches that day with a model forecast
Where the numbers come from
A statistical model (Dixon–Coles) built from the teams’ results — not opinions. “Usually” is how often the event happens in an average match; we publish a pick only from 60% and at least 12 points above “usually”.
Estimates, not sure things. We do not take bets. 18+.